This highlights deviations between the average of 37 computer based prediction
systems and the Vegas line. 

NFL Pre-Season


 
 
 The prediction average is the average prediction of a set of computer ratings.
All lines are in reference to the home team.  +3 means the home team is favored 
to win by 3 points and -3 means the visitor is favored by 3 points.  I am using
predictions that are posted on the various ranking's pages or the ratings that
are sent to me.
These predictions are being used for research and informational purposes only.

Disclaimer




  Home                Visitor          Opening   Updated  Prediction    Prediction
                                         line     line       Avg.     Standard Deviation

Baltimore          Atlanta                .        3.00      6.11           0.01
Buffalo            Denver                 .        1.00      0.19           0.32
Detroit            Pittsburgh             .        3.00      0.19           1.71
Green Bay          Seattle                .        3.00      6.93           1.60
Houston            Dallas                 .       -1.00      0.04           0.91
Miami              Jacksonville           .        2.50      7.02           0.16
Minnesota          Arizona                .        4.00      9.47           3.35
N.Y. Giants        Kansas City            .        2.50     -7.04           1.61
New England        Philadelphia           .        3.50      7.30           0.43
New Orleans        N.Y. Jets              .        2.50      3.74           0.52
San Diego          Indianapolis           .       -2.00     -7.11           1.85
San Francisco      Oakland                .       -1.50      8.62           2.43
St. Louis          Chicago                .        3.50      6.32           0.26
Tampa Bay          Cincinnati             .        3.00      4.65           1.77
Tennessee          Cleveland              .        3.00     11.81           1.99
Washington         Carolina               .        3.50     -6.65           0.78
___________________________________________________________________________________________

Sagarin Ed Kambour Football Ratings Pigskin Index Enhanced Spread Projections
PerformanZ Ratings Averge of all Predictions NutShell Predictive Moore Power Ratings
ARGH Power Ratings Matthews Grid CPA Rankings Mike Greenfield 

  Home               Visitor             LINE   SAG    PFZ    ARGH   KAM    AVG    MAT    PIG    NSP    CPA    ESP    MOR   GRNF       Home         Visitor

Baltimore          Atlanta               3.00    .      .      .      .     6.11    .      .     8.00    .     6.10    .      .      Baltimore     Atlanta
Buffalo            Denver                1.00    .      .      .      .     0.19    .      .     2.00    .    -0.03    .      .      Buffalo       Denver
Detroit            Pittsburgh            3.00    .      .      .      .     0.19    .      .    -9.00    .     1.40    .      .      Detroit       Pittsburgh
Green Bay          Seattle               3.00    .      .      .      .     6.93    .      .     1.00    .     5.80    .      .      Green Bay     Seattle
Houston            Dallas               -1.00    .      .      .      .     0.04    .      .    19.00    .    -0.60    .      .      Houston       Dallas
Miami              Jacksonville          2.50    .      .      .      .     7.02    .      .    17.00    .     6.90    .      .      Miami         Jacksonville
Minnesota          Arizona               4.00    .      .      .      .     9.47    .      .     3.00    .     7.10    .      .      Minnesota     Arizona
N.Y. Giants        Kansas City           2.50    .      .      .      .    -7.04    .      .   -32.00    .    -5.90    .      .      N.Y. Giants   Kansas City
New England        Philadelphia          3.50    .      .      .      .     7.30    .      .    23.00    .     7.00    .      .      New England   Philadelphia
New Orleans        N.Y. Jets             2.50    .      .      .      .     3.74    .      .    -4.00    .     4.10    .      .      New Orleans   N.Y. Jets
San Diego          Indianapolis         -2.00    .      .      .      .    -7.11    .      .   -13.00    .    -5.80    .      .      San Diego     Indianapolis
San Francisco      Oakland              -1.50    .      .      .      .     8.62    .      .     9.00    .     6.90    .      .      San Francisco Oakland
St. Louis          Chicago               3.50    .      .      .      .     6.32    .      .    17.00    .     6.50    .      .      St. Louis     Chicago
Tampa Bay          Cincinnati            3.00    .      .      .      .     4.65    .      .     5.00    .     3.40    .      .      Tampa Bay     Cincinnati
Tennessee          Cleveland             3.00    .      .      .      .    11.81    .      .    25.00    .    10.40    .      .      Tennessee     Cleveland
Washington         Carolina              3.50    .      .      .      .    -6.65    .      .   -26.00    .    -6.10    .      .      Washington    Carolina



CPA Retro Rankings Scoring Effeciency Prediction Least Squares w/ team specific HFA Stat Fox
Pythagorean Ratings Hank Trexler Least Absolute Value Regression Sagarin Elo/Pred
Beck Elo Least Squares Regression Frank Alder 

  Home               Visitor             LINE   CPAR   PYTH   ELO    EFF    TREX   L2     L2HF   L1     ALDR   FOX    SAGE  SAGP       Home         Visitor

Baltimore          Atlanta               3.00    .      .     6.12    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      Baltimore     Atlanta
Buffalo            Denver                1.00    .      .     0.42    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      Buffalo       Denver
Detroit            Pittsburgh            3.00    .      .    -1.02    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      Detroit       Pittsburgh
Green Bay          Seattle               3.00    .      .     8.06    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      Green Bay     Seattle
Houston            Dallas               -1.00    .      .     0.69    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      Houston       Dallas
Miami              Jacksonville          2.50    .      .     7.13    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      Miami         Jacksonville
Minnesota          Arizona               4.00    .      .    11.84    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      Minnesota     Arizona
N.Y. Giants        Kansas City           2.50    .      .    -8.18    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      N.Y. Giants   Kansas City
New England        Philadelphia          3.50    .      .     7.60    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      New England   Philadelphia
New Orleans        N.Y. Jets             2.50    .      .     3.37    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      New Orleans   N.Y. Jets
San Diego          Indianapolis         -2.00    .      .    -8.42    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      San Diego     Indianapolis
San Francisco      Oakland              -1.50    .      .    10.33    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      San Francisco Oakland
St. Louis          Chicago               3.50    .      .     6.14    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      St. Louis     Chicago
Tampa Bay          Cincinnati            3.00    .      .     5.90    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      Tampa Bay     Cincinnati
Tennessee          Cleveland             3.00    .      .    13.21    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      Tennessee     Cleveland
Washington         Carolina              3.50    .      .    -7.20    .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      .      Washington    Carolina



Bihl Rankings Prediction Median Strengthranking.com NutShell Retro
Logistic Regression JFM Power Ratings Jeff Imes Flyman
Grid Iron Gold John Coffey Jeff Self The Sports Report 

  Home               Visitor             LINE   LOG    MDN    BIHL   JFM    IMES   STR    NSR    FLY    GIG    COFF   SELF   TSR       Home         Visitor

Baltimore          Atlanta               3.00    .     6.11    .      .      .      .   -20.00    .      .      .      .      .      Baltimore     Atlanta
Buffalo            Denver                1.00    .     1.21    .      .      .      .     4.00    .      .      .      .      .      Buffalo       Denver
Detroit            Pittsburgh            3.00    .     0.19    .      .      .      .    24.00    .      .      .      .      .      Detroit       Pittsburgh
Green Bay          Seattle               3.00    .     3.40    .      .      .      .     0.00    .      .      .      .      .      Green Bay     Seattle
Houston            Dallas               -1.00    .     4.34    .      .      .      .     8.00    .      .      .      .      .      Houston       Dallas
Miami              Jacksonville          2.50    .    12.07    .      .      .      .    24.00    .      .      .      .      .      Miami         Jacksonville
Minnesota          Arizona               4.00    .     5.05    .      .      .      .   -18.00    .      .      .      .      .      Minnesota     Arizona
N.Y. Giants        Kansas City           2.50    .   -18.09    .      .      .      .   -28.00    .      .      .      .      .      N.Y. Giants   Kansas City
New England        Philadelphia          3.50    .    15.30    .      .      .      .    38.00    .      .      .      .      .      New England   Philadelphia
New Orleans        N.Y. Jets             2.50    .     3.74    .      .      .      .     5.00    .      .      .      .      .      New Orleans   N.Y. Jets
San Diego          Indianapolis         -2.00    .   -10.71    .      .      .      .   -14.00    .      .      .      .      .      San Diego     Indianapolis
San Francisco      Oakland              -1.50    .     9.67    .      .      .      .    16.00    .      .      .      .      .      San Francisco Oakland
St. Louis          Chicago               3.50    .     6.75    .      .      .      .     7.00    .      .      .      .      .      St. Louis     Chicago
Tampa Bay          Cincinnati            3.00    .     5.45    .      .      .      .    23.00    .      .      .      .      .      Tampa Bay     Cincinnati
Tennessee          Cleveland             3.00    .    19.11    .      .      .      .    27.00    .      .      .      .      .      Tennessee     Cleveland
Washington         Carolina              3.50    .   -16.60    .      .      .      .   -39.00    .      .      .      .      .      Washington    Carolina



Vegas Line Tom Benson Sports Report Slots Viacheslav 

  Home               Visitor             LINE   BENS   TSRS   VIA                                                                      Home         Visitor

Baltimore          Atlanta               3.00    .      .      .                                                                     Baltimore     Atlanta
Buffalo            Denver                1.00    .      .      .                                                                     Buffalo       Denver
Detroit            Pittsburgh            3.00    .      .      .                                                                     Detroit       Pittsburgh
Green Bay          Seattle               3.00    .      .      .                                                                     Green Bay     Seattle
Houston            Dallas               -1.00    .      .      .                                                                     Houston       Dallas
Miami              Jacksonville          2.50    .      .      .                                                                     Miami         Jacksonville
Minnesota          Arizona               4.00    .      .      .                                                                     Minnesota     Arizona
N.Y. Giants        Kansas City           2.50    .      .      .                                                                     N.Y. Giants   Kansas City
New England        Philadelphia          3.50    .      .      .                                                                     New England   Philadelphia
New Orleans        N.Y. Jets             2.50    .      .      .                                                                     New Orleans   N.Y. Jets
San Diego          Indianapolis         -2.00    .      .      .                                                                     San Diego     Indianapolis
San Francisco      Oakland              -1.50    .      .      .                                                                     San Francisco Oakland
St. Louis          Chicago               3.50    .      .      .                                                                     St. Louis     Chicago
Tampa Bay          Cincinnati            3.00    .      .      .                                                                     Tampa Bay     Cincinnati
Tennessee          Cleveland             3.00    .      .      .                                                                     Tennessee     Cleveland
Washington         Carolina              3.50    .      .      .                                                                     Washington    Carolina



Season Totals